Analysis of the migration behavior of provinces affected by the Kahramanmaraş centered earthquake in the pre-earthquake period on the basis of regional development
Abstract
The migration of individuals from the eleven provinces (Adana, Adıyaman, Diyarbakır, Elazığ, Gaziantep, Hatay, Kahramanmaraş, Kilis, Malatya, Osmaniye, Şanlıurfa) affected by the Kahramanmaraş-centered earthquake before the earthquake due to poor economic conditions can be considered an indicator that they will increase their migration behavior in the face of increasingly worsening economic conditions due to the earthquake. Based on this hypothesis, the study aimed to determine the economic factors affecting the migration behavior of individuals in eleven provinces affected by the Kahramanmaraş-centered earthquake before the earthquake (2009-2022 period) using the FGLS (Feasible Generalized Least Squares) method. In the study, it was predicted that the migration behavior of eleven provinces would increase in the future. In order to ensure regional development, it is important to prevent the migration from the eleven provinces from increasing in the future and to implement policies to improve the economy of the region. While determining the policies to be implemented for the development of the regional economy, the pre-earthquake situation of the eleven provinces should also be evaluated. In this case, studies investigating the economic factors affecting the migration behavior of eleven provinces before the earthquake should be examined. Since studies in this direction for eleven provinces are not found in the literature, it is thought that the study will contribute to the literature and has original value. According to the analysis results of the study, it was determined that the gross domestic product per capita variable had a negative effect on migration behavior in eleven provinces, the number of unemployed and the number of closed companies had a positive effect, and the average daily earnings did not have a statistically significant effect.