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Department of Business Administration, Sivas Cumhuriyet University, Sivas, 58140, Türkiye
Abstract
This study aims to draw conclusions about social welfare through service production and confidence indices, based on the increasing share of the service sector in the total economy. To this end, the effects of service confidence and consumer confidence on service production in Türkiye have been examined. In this study, an ARDL bounds test was applied using monthly data on the service confidence index, consumer confidence index, and service production index obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute for the period 2018:01–2024:11.The study estimated the long- and short-run causal relationships among the variables and the coefficients of the error correction model. According to the long-run findings, service production was negatively affected by an increase in consumer confidence but positively affected by an increase in service confidence; in the short run, service confidence was found to have a strong effect on service production, while consumer confidence had a weak effect. The findings indicate that consumer confidence and service confidence have different effects on service production, demonstrating that trust is not one-dimensional in market systems. The results show that service production is shaped by institutional trust and consumer expectations, in addition to income and demand determinants. Furthermore, it points to the importance of trust for sustainable production growth in the service sector.
Keywords
Service confidence,consumer confidence,macro marketing,ARDL boundary test
How to Cite
Akbulut Dursun, O. (2026). The impact of service and consumer confidence indices on service production. International Journal of Eurasia Social Sciences, 17(64), 706–717. https://doi.org/10.70736/ijoess.2383
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